Airbus A3XX 초대형 항공기 개발에 대하여(영문)
분야
docx2. How many aircraft does Airbus need to sell in order to break even on the investment? Is this number greater or less than your estimate of total demand for very large aircraft (VLA) over the next 20 years?
3. As Boeing, how would you respond to this situation? How does your answer depend on what you think Airbus is likely to do?
4. In the perspective of this course, which airline company would be more competitive in global markets for the next decade? And why?
The development cost for the A3XX is expected to be $13B. We did the numerical analyses by assuming a conservative 20% operating margin on the A3XX. The best case scenario occurs if Airbus can sell the max. production of 48 planes/ year. This gives us an estimate of 373 planes to breakeven. A more conservative estimate of 40 planes sold/year gives us an estimate of 391 planes to breakeven. If we took a pessimistic view: 10% margins for the first three years coupled with sales of 32 planes/ year, we arrive at 525 planes to breakeven. Our middle of the road estimate calls for Airbus to sell near 400 planes to breakeven.
3. As Boeing, how would you respond to this situation? How does your answer depend on what you think Airbus is likely to do?
Boeing has forecasted a demand of 330 VLA planes with a passenger carrying capacity of 550 passengers for the 20-year period through 2019. This is substantially less than Airbus’ forecast. In view of this forecast, it would be best for Boeing not to respond with a competitive offering to the new super jumbo jet launch planned by Airbus. The case says that other companies which were unsuccessful in launching a new plane, suffered grave consequences and some even went out of business.
My response would be to invest in making improvements to the 747 and making smaller investments to make the 747 even more efficient from operability and manufacturability. Boeing’s research shows that a majority of the airlines bought the 747 for its range and not for its capacity. This indicates that the need is actually for longer range